Where to compete today, who to partner with, and how oto turn complexity into competitive advantage: the “recipe” of Prof. Carnevale Maffè

The following content is based on the speech delivered by Prof. Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffè – Professor at SDA Bocconi School of Management – presented last March during the Vero Project Global Summit 2026. His contribution provided attendees with a clear and structured perspective on the current phase facing both the European and global industrial system.

A structural realignment, not a temporary crisis
The economic, industrial, and financial landscape as we have known it until now is not simply undergoing a transformation, nor facing a short-term cyclical crisis. What Prof. Carnevale Maffè outlined is a profound structural realignment that simultaneously reshapes markets, supply chains, competitive models, and the roles of industrial players.
The foundations that have supported growth over the past twenty years—efficiency, scale, and linear globalization—are no longer sufficient to ensure continuity, profitability, and resilience.
Today’s environment is defined by a combination of converging forces: geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain instability, pressure on energy costs and skills, technological acceleration, and a demographic decline in qualified labor. In this scenario, complexity is no longer an exception—it is the new normal

The new competitive axis: China rises, Europe lags
Within this context, China represents a clear signal of a paradigm shift: it is no longer a story of low-cost competitiveness or technology imitation, but one of scale, supply chain control, and coordinated investment across industry, energy, and innovation. Since the post-Covid period, the Chinese ecosystem has strengthened its autonomy, driven by increased patent intensity and the expansion of both renewable and nuclear energy infrastructures.
By contrast, Europe has lost ground across several strategic sectors, highlighting the need for a more conscious competitive repositioning.
This pressure is amplified by demographic and geopolitical factors: China will face population decline in the medium term but has already consolidated its positioning and industrial capacity; Europe, on the other hand, is caught between geopolitical fragmentation—requiring less cost-optimized and more resilient supply chains—and a structural human capital crisis, with an aging workforce and an insufficient pipeline of technical and digital skills.

From automotive to diversification: rethinking the sector portfolio
Within this scenario, the automotive industry offers a powerful lesson. For many European companies, dependency on this sector has long been a stabilizing factor; today, it risks becoming a vulnerability, as OEM programs, investments, and technological trajectories grow increasingly unstable and less predictable.
The point is not to “exit” automotive, but to rebalance its weight and progressively build a more diversified sector portfolio. This means complementing it with markets offering greater stability or structural growth—such as medical, aerospace, packaging, energy, and infrastructure—capable of mitigating cyclicality and uncertainty.

The era of the K-shaped economy
The economy is increasingly taking on a K-shaped configuration: some companies accelerate, while others remain stuck in models that are no longer sustainable.
The real divide is not between those who “do innovation” and those who do not, but between those who can translate innovation into execution and those who accumulate disconnected initiatives without an integrated design. Today, competitive advantage emerges from the alignment between strategic vision, operational discipline, and the ability to scale consistently.

Ecosystems, data, and leadership: key levers for manufacturing SMEs

Three key messages strongly emerge from Prof. Carnevale Maffè’s speech.
The first is the end of the self-sufficient company: no organization can independently govern today’s level of complexity. Value is created within structured ecosystems, where skills, data, and responsibilities are orchestrated methodically.
The second is the role of data, which evolves from an operational by-product into a strategic asset. Data enables better decisions, reduces risk, makes performance measurable, and strengthens trust across the value chain.
The third is leadership, which must make clear, decisive choices: where to compete, which alliances to build, which complexities to embrace, and which to eliminate. In this phase, knowing what not to do is just as important as deciding where to invest.
For European manufacturing SMEs, this great realignment represents a demanding challenge—but also a tangible opportunity. Decision-making agility, when supported by robust processes, integrated systems, and credible partnerships, can become a structural advantage over larger but less responsive organizations.
The future does not belong to those who accumulate solutions, but to those who build systems—developing coherent, scalable, and sustainable models over time. It is not a matter of tools. It is a matter of shared strategic choices.